Chapter 25
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Introduction
1 . Russell Ackoff, “The Future of Operational Research Is Past,” Journal of the Operational Research Society 30, no. 2 (February 1979): 93–104.
2 . Idries Shah, Tales of the Dervishes (New York: E. P. Dutton, 1970), 25.
Chapter One
1 . Poul Anderson, quoted in Arthur Koestler, The Ghost in the Machine (New York: Macmillan, 1968), 59.
2 . Ramon Margalef, “Perspectives in Ecological Theory,” Co-Evolution Quarterly (Summer 1975), 49.
3 . Jay W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1961), 15.
4 . Honoré Balzac, quoted in George P. Richardson, Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1991), 54.
5 . Jan Tinbergen, quoted in ibid, 44.
Chapter Two
1 . Albert Einstein, “On the Method of Theoretical Physics,” The Herbert Spencer Lecture, delivered at Oxford (10 June 1933); also published in Philosophy of Science 1, no. 2 (April 1934): 163–69.
2 . The concept of a “systems zoo” was invented by Prof. Hartmut Bossel of the University of Kassel in Germany. His three recent “System Zoo” books contain system descriptions and simulation-model documentations of more than 100 “animals,” some of which are included in modified form here. Hartmut Bossel, System Zoo Simulation Models – Vol. 1: Elementary Systems, Physics, Engineering; Vol. 2: Climate, Ecosystems, Resources; Vol. 3: Economy, Society, Development. (Norderstedt, Germany: Books on Demand, 2007).
3 . For a more complete model, see the chapter “Population Sector” in Dennis L. Meadows et al., Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, (Cambridge MA: Wright-Allen Press, 1974).
4 . For an example, see Chapter 2 in Donella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Co., 2004).
5 . Jay W. Forrester, 1989. “The System Dynamics National Model: Macrobehavior from Microstructure,” in P. M. Milling and E. O. K. Zahn, eds., Computer-Based Management of Complex Systems: International System Dynamics Conference (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1989).
Chapter Three
1 . Aldo Leopold, Round River (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).
2 . C. S. Holling, ed., Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management , (Chichester UK: John Wiley & Sons, 1978), 34.
3 . Ludwig von Bertalanffy, Problems of Life: An Evaluation of Modern Biological Thought (New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1952), 105.
4 . Jonathan Swift, “Poetry, a Rhapsody, 1733.” In The Poetical Works of Jonathan Swift (Boston: Little Brown & Co.,1959).
5 . Paraphrased from Herbert Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial (Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 1969), 90–91 and 98–99.
Chapter Four
1 . Wendell Berry, Standing by Words (Washington, DC: Shoemaker & Hoard, 2005), 65.
2 . Kenneth Boulding, “General Systems as a Point of View,” in Mihajlo D. Mesarovic, ed., Views on General Systems Theory , proceedings of the Second Systems Symposium, Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, April 1963 (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1964).
3 . James Gleick, Chaos: Making a New Science (New York: Viking, 1987), 23–24.
4 . This story is compiled from the following sources: C. S. Holling, “The Curious Behavior of Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology,” in H. A. Linstone, Future Research (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1977); B. A. Montgomery et al., The Spruce Budworm Handbook , Michigan Cooperative Forest Pest Management Program, Handbook 82-7, November, 1982; The Research News , University of Michigan, April June, 1984; Kari Lie, “The Spruce Budworm Controversy in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia,” Alternatives 10, no. 10 (Spring 1980), 5; R. F. Morris, “The Dynamics of Epidemic Spruce Budworm Populations,” Entomological Society of Canada , no. 31, (1963).
5 . Garrett Hardin, “The Cybernetics of Competition: A Biologist’s View of Society,” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 7, no. 1 (1963): 58-84.
6 . Jay W. Forrester, Urban Dynamics (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1969), 117.
7 . Václav Havel, from a speech to the Institute of France, quoted in the International Herald Tribune , November 13, 1992, p. 7.
8 . Dennis L. Meadows, Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles, ( Cambridge MA: Wright-Allen Press, Inc., 1970).
9 . Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Edwin Cannan, ed., (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976), 477-8.
10 . Herman Daly, ed., Toward a Steady-State Economy (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman and Co., 1973), 17; Herbert Simon, “Theories of Bounded Rationality,” in R. Radner and C. B. McGuire, eds., Decision and Organization (Amsterdam: North-Holland Pub. Co., 1972).
11 . The term “satisficing” (a merging of “satisfy” and “suffice”) was first used by Herbert Simon to describe the behavior of making decisions that meet needs adequately, rather than trying to maximize outcomes in the face of imperfect information. H. Simon, Models of Man , (New York: Wiley, 1957).
12 . Philip G. Zimbardo, “On the Ethics of Intervention in Human Psychological Research: With Special Reference to the Stanford Prison Experiment,” Cognition 2, no. 2 (1973): 243–56)
13 . This story was told to me during a conference in Kollekolle, Denmark, in 1973.
Chapter Five
1 . Paraphrased in an interview by Barry James, “Voltaire’s Legacy: The Cult of the Systems Man,” International Herald Tribune , December 16, 1992, p. 24.
2 . John H. Cushman, Jr., “From Clinton, a Flyer on Corporate Jets?” International Herald Tribune , December 15, 1992, p. 11.
3 . World Bank, World Development Report 1984 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984), 157; Petre Muresan and Ioan M. Copil, “Romania,” in B. Berelson, ed., Population Policy in Developed Countries (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1974), 355-84.
4 . Alva Myrdal, Nation and Family (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1968). Original edition published New York: Harper & Brothers, 1941.
5 . “Germans Lose Ground on Asylum Pact,” International Herald Tribune , December 15, 1992, p. 5.
6 . Garrett Hardin, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science 162, no. 3859 (13 December 1968): 1243–48.
7 . Erik Ipsen, “Britain on the Skids: A Malaise at the Top,” International Herald Tribune , December 15, 1992, p. 1.
8 . Clyde Haberman, “Israeli Soldier Kidnapped by Islamic Extremists,” International Herald Tribune , December 14, 1992, p. 1.
9 . Sylvia Nasar, “Clinton Tax Plan Meets Math,” International Herald Tribune , December 14, 1992, p. 15.
10 . See Jonathan Kozol, Savage Inequalities: Children in America’s Schools (New York: Crown Publishers, 1991).
11 . Quoted in Thomas L. Friedman, “Bill Clinton Live: Not Just a Talk Show,” International Herald Tribune , December 16, 1992, p. 6.
12 . Keith B. Richburg, “Addiction, Somali-Style, Worries Marines,” International Herald Tribune, December 15, 1992, p. 2.
13 . Calvin and Hobbes comic strip, International Herald Tribune , December 18, 1992, p. 22.
14 . Wouter Tims, “Food, Agriculture, and Systems Analysis,” Options , International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria no. 2 (1984), 16.
15 . “Tokyo Cuts Outlook on Growth to 1.6%,” International Herald Tribune, December 19-20, 1992, p. 11.
16 . Robert F. Kennedy address, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, March 18, 1968. Available from the JFK Library On-Line, http://www.jfklibrary.org/Historical+Resources/Archives/Reference+Desk/Speeches/RFK/RFKSpeech68Mar18UKansas.htm . Accessed 6/11/08.
17 . Wendell Berry, Home Economics (San Francisco: North Point Press, 1987), 133.
Chapter Six
1 . Lawrence Malkin, “IBM Slashes Spending for Research in New Cutback,” International Herald Tribune, December 16, 1992, p. 1.
2 . J. W. Forrester, World Dynamics (Cambridge MA: Wright-Allen Press, 1971).
3 . Forrester, Urban Dynamics (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1969), 65.
4 . Thanks to David Holmstrom of Santiago, Chile.
5 . For an example, see Dennis Meadows’s model of commodity price fluctuations: Dennis L. Meadows, Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles (Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press, Inc., 1970).
6 . John Kenneth Galbraith, The New Industrial State (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1967).
7 . Ralph Waldo Emerson, “War,” lecture delivered in Boston, March, 1838. Reprinted in Emerson’s Complete Works, vol. XI, (Boston: Houghton, Mifflin & Co., 1887), 177.
8 . Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962).
Chapter Seven
1 . G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy (New York: Dodd, Mead and Co., 1927).
2 . For a beautiful example of how systems thinking and other human qualities can be combined in the context of corporate management, see Peter Senge’s book The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (New York: Doubleday, 1990).
3 . Philip Abelson, “Major Changes in the Chemical Industry,” Science 255, no. 5051 (20 March 1992), 1489.
4 . Fred Kofman, “Double-Loop Accounting: A Language for the Learning Organization,” The Systems Thinker 3, no. 1 (February 1992).
5 . Wendell Berry, Standing by Words (San Francisco: North Point Press, 1983), 24, 52.
6 . This story was told to me by Ed Roberts of Pugh-Roberts Associates.
7 . Garrett Hardin, Exploring New Ethics for Survival: the Voyage of the Spaceship Beagle (New York, Penguin Books, 1976), 107.
8 . Donald N. Michael, “Competences and Compassion in an Age of Uncertainty,” World Future Society Bulletin (January/February 1983).
9 . Donald N. Michael quoted in H. A. Linstone and W. H. C. Simmonds. eds., Futures Research (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1977), 98–99.
10 . Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac and Sketches Here and There (New York: Oxford University Press, 1968), 224–25.
11 . Kenneth Boulding, “The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth,” in H. Jarrett, ed., Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy: Essays from the Sixth Resources for the Future Forum (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1966), 11-12.
12 . Joseph Wood Krutch, Human Nature and the Human Condition (New York: Random House, 1959).